The coin flip conundrum  PoShen Loh

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About TEDEd Originals
TEDEd Original lessons feature the words and ideas of educators brought to life by professional animators. Are you an educator or animator interested in creating a TEDEd original? Nominate yourself here »
Meet The Creators
 Educator PoShen Loh
 Director Mimi Chiu
 Script Editor Eleanor Nelsen
 Producer Aaron Augenblick
 Animator Mimi Chiu
 Collaborator Andrea Janov , Zach Nelkin, Mark Paulson
 Associate Producer Elizabeth Cox, Jessica Ruby
 Content Producer Gerta Xhelo
 Editorial Producer Alex Rosenthal
 Narrator Addison Anderson
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The key to resolving the coin paradox is to combine several mathematical concepts. Our starting point is to model a fair coin as a sequence of independent outcomes, each of which has 50% probability of coming up heads or tails. Next, we use the deep concept of expected value to formalize the notion of an “average number” of flips before witnessing a certain event. In the video, we intentionally used the more colloquial word “average” to ease intuition, as it sounds plausible that if a random variable X has an average value of A and a random variable Y has an average value of B, then the average value of the random variable (X+Y) is A+B. This property was at the heart of all of our analysis, and is often known as “linearity of expectation." That allowed us to write equations in terms of the expected values as variables, which we then solved with algebraic techniques. For further investigation into an even more complex situation with three consecutive coin flips, there is an engaging video by Numberphile, which introduces Penney’s Game.
Indeed, some of the most interesting solutions in mathematics (and in the world) rely on fluency across multiple mathematical topics, combined with creative problem solving in the face of challenge. PoShen Loh is on a mission to introduce this fluency through expii.com, a free, personalized math (and science) learning platform, which invites the world to share its knowledge. Don't forget to check out Expii's YouTube channel, too!
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About TEDEd Originals
TEDEd Original lessons feature the words and ideas of educators brought to life by professional animators. Are you an educator or animator interested in creating a TEDEd original? Nominate yourself here »
Meet The Creators
 Educator PoShen Loh
 Director Mimi Chiu
 Script Editor Eleanor Nelsen
 Producer Aaron Augenblick
 Animator Mimi Chiu
 Collaborator Andrea Janov , Zach Nelkin, Mark Paulson
 Associate Producer Elizabeth Cox, Jessica Ruby
 Content Producer Gerta Xhelo
 Editorial Producer Alex Rosenthal
 Narrator Addison Anderson