Skip to main content

Can you outsmart this logical fallacy? - Alex Gendler

2,027,250 Views

4,700 Questions Answered

TEDEd Animation

Let’s Begin…

Meet Lucy. She was a math major in college, and aced all her courses in probability and statistics. Which do you think is more likely: that Lucy is a portrait artist, or that Lucy is a portrait artist who also plays poker? How do we know which statement is more likely to be true? Alex Gendler explores our tendency to look for shortcuts and the phenomenon known as the conjunction fallacy.

Which of these sequences of coin flips would you be most likely to bet on?

About TED-Ed Animations

TED-Ed Animations feature the words and ideas of educators brought to life by professional animators. Are you an educator or animator interested in creating a TED-Ed Animation? Nominate yourself here »

Meet The Creators

  • Educator Alex Gendler
  • Director Igor Coric
  • Narrator Addison Anderson
  • Director of Production Gerta Xhelo
  • Editorial Producer Alex Rosenthal
  • Associate Producer Bethany Cutmore-Scott
  • Associate Editorial Producer Elizabeth Cox
  • Fact-Checker Eden Girma

More from Exploring Theories