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Can you outsmart this logical fallacy? - Alex Gendler

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Meet Lucy. She was a math major in college, and aced all her courses in probability and statistics. Which do you think is more likely: that Lucy is a portrait artist, or that Lucy is a portrait artist who also plays poker? How do we know which statement is more likely to be true? Alex Gendler explores our tendency to look for shortcuts and the phenomenon known as the conjunction fallacy.

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TED-Ed Animations feature the words and ideas of educators brought to life by professional animators. Are you an educator or animator interested in creating a TED-Ed Animation? Nominate yourself here »

Meet The Creators

  • Educator Alex Gendler
  • Director Igor Coric
  • Narrator Addison Anderson
  • Director of Production Gerta Xhelo
  • Editorial Producer Alex Rosenthal
  • Associate Producer Bethany Cutmore-Scott
  • Associate Editorial Producer Elizabeth Cox
  • Fact-checker Eden Girma
  • See more
Additional Resources for you to Explore
Our intuitions are often a good guide for gauging everyday situations. But in some cases, they lead us to illogical conclusions. Find out what the conjunction fallacy is, why it’s wrong, and how to avoid it.

Read Kahneman’s original paper on the ‘Linda problem’ and followup variations on the experiment. Since the seminal paper, there has been debate over whether the subjects’ responses actually constitute a fallacy or are the result of ambiguity in communication, as well as deeper exploration of the cognitive processes behind such responses, and reflections on what it means for society.


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About TED-Ed Animations

TED-Ed Animations feature the words and ideas of educators brought to life by professional animators. Are you an educator or animator interested in creating a TED-Ed Animation? Nominate yourself here »

Meet The Creators

  • Educator Alex Gendler
  • Director Igor Coric
  • Narrator Addison Anderson
  • Director of Production Gerta Xhelo
  • Editorial Producer Alex Rosenthal
  • Associate Producer Bethany Cutmore-Scott
  • Associate Editorial Producer Elizabeth Cox
  • Fact-checker Eden Girma
  • See more