Sample: suppose you can win the first price with a probability of 1/10000 because 10000 people have played. Next day somebody of the jury tells you the winner is in another state. All of a sudden your chance has changed from 0.0001 to 0 - Zero chance because of the new additional knowledge. Similar: if you see a Zonk in your second door your chance suddenly chances to 0.5 (50%) because of the new knowledge - and this fits perfectly to reality - 2 possibilities are left. People believe that they can calculate luck in casinos because they did not make their Math homework - so why do you LET people get even more confused by such nonsense? please, before you publish something misterious, let mathematicians check it first!

Em português

The host puts the three cards in front of you, but slips up and allows you a quick glimpse at card number two, so you know it is a loser. You think to yourself, the right card is either card number one or card number three = 0.5 chance. You pick card number one. The host reveals card number two and as you already knew, it is a losing card. Now the host surprises you and offers you to switch your choice. Should you? Suddenly it is a 0.5 chance whatever you do. But you knew more at the beginning!

The people explore the problem which posits if a contestant should switch doors.

If you have to choose between door 1 and door 3, and behind one of them is the car, then in the new situation it feels like there is 50% chance of winning, not 2/3 if you switch. I am not sure if the debate is finally settled, but I think there should be strong arguments to hold a position on one side or the other. Maybe there is a smart re-framing of the question that could help :-).

If I had the chance I`ll make the switch, doesn`t matter if I win or lose, I`ll always make the switch cause statisticlly I`ll have more chance of winning.

How can we create a random outcome like we do from a dice(6 outcomes) or the filp of a coin(2 outcomes) I am looking for a shape where we can find a choice out of 4 choices