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Can AI predict someone's breakup? - Thomas Hofweber

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A couple has been considering getting engaged, but they’re worried about divorce statistics. An AI-based model was just released that can predict your likelihood of divorce with 95% accuracy. The only catch is the model doesn’t offer any reasons for its results. So, should they decide whether or not to get married based on this AI’s prediction? Thomas Hofweber explores AI’s transparency problem.

How significant is it that you might never know the reason why something would have happened? For example, suppose you decide that your relationship with Alex is doomed, since the highly reliable AI predicted that you will break up, and so you do break up. But you might never know more precisely why you would have broken up in normal circumstances, when you let events run their course without getting the AI involved. Is it because one of you wants to live in a city and the other one in the country? Or because of your different religious upbringings? Even if the AI is correct that you would have broken up, how much does it matter that you will never find out what precisely would have doomed the relationship?

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TED-Ed Animations feature the words and ideas of educators brought to life by professional animators. Are you an educator or animator interested in creating a TED-Ed Animation? Nominate yourself here »

Meet The Creators

  • Educator Thomas Hofweber
  • Director Hannah Lau-Walker
  • Narrator Addison Anderson
  • Composer Phil Brookes
  • Sound Designer Phil Brookes
  • Director of Production Gerta Xhelo
  • Produced by Abdallah Ewis
  • Editorial Director Alex Rosenthal
  • Editorial Producer Dan Kwartler
  • Fact-Checker Charles Wallace

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