Can you solve the frog riddle? - Derek Abbott
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18,245 Questions Answered
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You’re stranded in a rainforest, and you’ve eaten a poisonous mushroom. To save your life, you need an antidote excreted by a certain species of frog. Unfortunately, only the female frog produces the antidote. The male and female look identical, but the male frog has a distinctive croak. Derek Abbott shows how to use conditional probability to make sure you lick the right frog and get out alive.
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Meet The Creators
- Educator Derek Abbott
- Script Editor Alex Gendler
- Director Outis
- Narrator Addison Anderson
by Pau Torruella Besa
Pau Torruella Besa
Lesson in progress
Ways to see that this video is wrong and that either case the chances of survival are 50/50.
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Pau Torruella Besa
Pau Torruella Besa
Lesson in progress
At this point I'm pretty sure that everyone here has noticed that the video logic is wrong. I really don't understand how an organization as reputable as TED has allowed this video to be around for nearly a month.
Anyway, there are many ways to prove mathematically that the 2/3 deduction is wrong, but also you can prove it in the real world:
1.Flip a coin.
2. In a second table leave a coin tails up and flip a second coin.
3. Repeat N times.
In which table do you get heads more often?
Also for those who don't know how to discuss correctly the different cases, just build a binary tree:
Frog 1: m f(x) and equally valid: Frog 1: m f
Frog 2: m f Frog 2: m f(x) m f(x)
(50/50) again you have only two cases.
