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Can you solve the frog riddle? - Derek Abbott

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You’re stranded in a rainforest, and you’ve eaten a poisonous mushroom. To save your life, you need an antidote excreted by a certain species of frog. Unfortunately, only the female frog produces the antidote. The male and female look identical, but the male frog has a distinctive croak. Derek Abbott shows how to use conditional probability to make sure you lick the right frog and get out alive.

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  • Educator Derek Abbott
  • Script Editor Alex Gendler
  • Director Outis
  • Narrator Addison Anderson
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by TED-Ed

Now let’s say one of the frogs had a slightly darker color than the other. Instead of telling you that the frog on the left is male, what if the darker colored frog was male? Does this change the probability of the other being female or is the probability unchanged?

Comments are closed on this discussion.


Avatar for Yostin Moralez-Gonzalez
Lesson completed

As the videos says it will still be 75% of the the female so then it will be more easier and more quick.


Avatar for annie J
Lesson completed

I think because we know WHICH one is male i think the other being female is 50%


Avatar for Fiona Daughtry
Lesson in progress

The probability does change.



Avatar for Xochilt Rivera
Lesson completed

does not matter you are still changing the information given to the person so there is no other options


Avatar for Xochilt Rivera
Lesson completed

Your are changing the information and the odds of them apart it still does not matter u have changed the information given


Avatar for Kooper Lightsey
Lesson completed

yes, because you can see the difference and give yourself enough information to know exactly which frogs are female and male


Avatar for Damien Howell
Lesson completed

I would be easier because it would need to be what you were looking for.


Avatar for William Thomas
Lesson completed

The probability will not be changed since females can have stained skin.

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